Thursday, August 15, 2013

VIX Positioning For Higher Levels

This chart of VIX (compliments of Bloomberg) shows progress of the index since late January this year.  In mid-March, the index found an important low and subsequently jumped higher in concert with a very brief two session period of equity market weakness.  This VIX jump from the opening level on March 15th of 11.52 to the closing level of 13.36 on March 18th created a bullish window that remains open today.  The support from this window offered several buy VIX/sell equity opportunities, the latest of which is happening today April 15th.

The settle above May 2 opened bearish window on May 22nd ushered in the VIX jump and 7.5% SPX index sell-off.  I see similarities to that development with recent VIX and equity price action.  If the VIX holds above the July 31st (bearish window opening) level of 13.45 today, we should expect further advance in the VIX, possibly to the recent low 20's or further along with general equity weakness which could stretch beyond the more recent 7.5% decline.
Regards, Marty

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