Friday, August 8, 2014
Candle Quick: TYU4 (10 yr Tsy Future)
Bullish break-out on Wednesday fooled many because of inability to hold all of that sessions gains into close. However, as the best settle since late-May it was an important close. Tue/Wed formed bullish engulfing and Thur confirmed its bullish implications. Late-May high bested today. Overnight high today has, thus-far, not held. Consider any settle above 126 as bullish. However, any settle below 126-04 (without a new high above 126-17+ today) will form a potential bearish shooting star. Reversal patterns evidenced at/near prior highs should be given ample attention. At the same time though, the lengthy consolidation prior to this break-out advises we have patience with initial progress (toward higher TY prices).
Generally speaking, weekly charts are not too instructive. The consolidation having taken place over the last month and the bullish advance today shows up as somewhat striking on the weekly chart. This may better illustrate the significance of Wednesday’s bullish break-out and subsequent follow through, offering reason again for not being too demanding (impatient) for today’s advance to (immediately) hold all its earlier gains.