A faint light is often all that is cast upon truly outstanding positioning strategies before they ready. Fundamental analysis, awareness of monetary policy developments, positioning conditions and other trend characteristics followed allow candlestick charting analysis to shine needed illumination. Martin B. McGuire
Monday, April 27, 2015
Bund; Technicals Suggest A Long Way From Home
Developments in the Bund have encouraged a more attentive following of
developing technical conditions.I noted
on April 21 (‘Bund
Taking U-Turn at Zero Yield?’) that the Bund had formed a technical pattern
that warns of forthcoming volatility.That volatility came the next session, when on April 22, the Bund fell
more than it had in 96% of the sessions over the last 5 years. (see also ‘German
Bund Wrestles with Bearish Reversal Implications’)
Since, bullish advances have been mild and fleeting.There has been three sessions since April 22
decline and prices have failed to recover half that loss on a settlement
basis.As such, we afford greater
importance to the bearish implications of the recent turn in Bund prices and
should ready for another leg lower.
That the Bund can be sporting such weak technical conditions in the face
of seeming dire EU/Greece developments is quite telling.Apparently there is something that shall be
understood shortly which will confirm the weaker price action of the Bund.Whether that is some level of economic growth
that was not apparent or a more encouraging development in the Greece
situation, I do not know.
What is clear is that Bund prices have fallen when all else points to
encouraging conditions for the bullish contingency.They have failed to take charge for a reason(s)
unknown, but that mystery will not last long.The Bund may be a long way from home.