Monday, June 22, 2015
Treasury Late to Party Longs on Friday Hurt
Open interest jumped 38K in TY as a result of trade on Friday, indicating that Grexit ‘risk-off’ was in vogue. Commitment of Trader report showed that large spec reduced net long positions by a decent -40K in the week ending last Tuesday after a nice run. The TYU contract made a 7th new high on Friday indicating a somewhat ‘stretched’ condition after recovering a Fib 61.8% retrace of the late-May to June 11th 3.25 point decline, interestingly a stretch ending with a 7th new low.
The intermediate term-trend is bearish with a fairly strong counter trend move being tested today. There is room for a bearish ‘harami’ pattern to form today. Some would look to a failure at the 200 day moving average to be significant. It is marked today at 126-14 and was bested on Friday on settlement.
Although somewhat remote as prospect for today, a settlement below support at 125-22 (an upward sloping trend line dating from June 11) and below the June 16 open of 125-19+ would lead to further still lower prices and a test of recent lows.