Monday, June 22, 2015

Treasury Late to Party Longs on Friday Hurt

Open interest jumped 38K in TY as a result of trade on Friday, indicating that Grexit ‘risk-off’ was in vogue.  Commitment of Trader report showed that large spec reduced net long positions by a decent -40K in the week ending last Tuesday after a nice run.  The TYU contract made a 7th new high on Friday indicating a somewhat ‘stretched’ condition after recovering a Fib 61.8% retrace of the late-May to June 11th 3.25 point decline, interestingly a stretch ending with a 7th new low. 

The intermediate term-trend is bearish with a fairly strong counter trend move being tested today.  There is room for a bearish ‘harami’ pattern to form today.  Some would look to a failure at the 200 day moving average to be significant.  It is marked today at 126-14 and was bested on Friday on settlement. 

Although somewhat remote as prospect for today, a settlement below support at 125-22 (an upward sloping trend line dating from June 11) and below the June 16 open of 125-19+ would lead to further still lower prices and a test of recent lows.    

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